Deep Shia

Posted April 24, 2008

Is it just me or are Barack Obama and the rest of the Democrats starting to walk backwards on the question of Iraq? Hard to tell, since increasingly the only way to understand the war in Iraq is to listen to what is not being said by national political leaders.

Robert Gates is promoting David Petraeus to run CentCom — meaning that he Petraeus will run both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. This is of course excellent news — Petraeus understands both history and modern counterinsurgency warfare better than any general officer in the US military. He is a significant upgrade from Admiral William Fallon, a solid Navy guy who was sacked to make room for Petraus. If Petraus can’t be on the ticket with Obama (and yes, I know that I am the only Democrat in creation who would even entertain such a goofy idea), then at least let him turn both wars around.

Again, notice the hue and cry among Democrats at the promotion of the man they once libelously termed General "Betray Us?". You haven’t heard any objection? Me neither. Again, watch what is not being said. Democratic lawmakers are quietly acknowledging that Gates, Crocker, and especially Petraus are winning the war. With luck, he will have enough momentum by January that neither Clinton nor Obama can get in his way.

But Democrats will not get in the way of Petraus way any more than they will get in the way of Israel doing the right thing with Syrian and North Korean perfidy.Today’s
revelation that Israel’s decision to bomb a Syrian nuclear reactor
that it suspected but could not conclusively prove was intended to
produce nuclear weapons was also interesting for the dog that did not
bark.

No Democrat criticized Israel’s action. Not that any of them praised it.

There are plenty of announcements not being made about Iraq. One of the most remarkable is the failure of any Democrat to correct the prevailing narrative on what happened last month in Basra.

A month ago the story seemed clear. Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki launched a surprise attack against the main Shia
militia in Basra and got creamed. Green Iraqi soldiers were either crushed by the battle-hardened
street-fighters of the Mahdi Army or they simply turned tail and ran.

The press carried stories of defecting soldiers, tanks destroyed by the Mahdi militiamen, and US or British troops and aircraft rushing in to save the battle (which was not only botched but launched weeks ahead of plan). The few British soldiers remaining in Basra had to strap on their rifles and go to work.

But a month later, al-Malaki is in control of Basra and the Mahdi Army has been decimated. What happened? Was al-Malaki a genius who led a band of military
novices to achieve in a month what thousands
of highly trained British forces could not do in four years? Or did mercenary soldiers led by a power-hungry
crook collapse at the first sign of battle?

Or did the Iranians cut off Moqtada al-Sadr at the legs and leave his guys to the tender mercies of the Iraqi Army?

Regardless, Basra is completely under Iraqi government control and by all accounts — bloggers, MSM, Europeans — the people of Basra are dramatically better off now than they were under the British. Notes the London Times

Young women are daring to wear jeans, soldiers listen to pop music on their
mobile phones and bands are performing at wedding parties again.

All across Iraq’s second city life is improving, a month after Iraqi troops
began a surprise crackdown on the black-clad gangs who were allowed to
flourish under the British military. The gunmen’s reign had enforced a
strict set of religious codes.

It appears that the Mahdi Army is being devastated with the tacit permission of Iran. al-Malaki even issued an ultimatum today, according to AP and reported by blogger Bill Roggio in Bagdhad.

In Basrah, General Mohan al Freiji, the chief of the Basrah
Operational Commander and leader of the security operation in the
province, has issued warrants "for 81 people, including senior leaders
of the Mahdi militia, and they have 24 hours to give up," The Associated Press reported.

Iraqi troops continue to clear Basrah, although the fighting has been sparse since security forces cleared the Mahdi Army-controlled Hayaniyah
neighborhood in Basrah last weekend. Iraqi forces "seized a cache
containing huge amounts of weapons and ammunition" in the Al Tanuma
neighborhood in eastern Basrah, Voices of Iraq reported. "The
cache contains more than (1000) mortar rounds of different calibers,
explosive equipment, and improvised explosive devices," a source told
the Iraqi newspaper.

Roggio reports further, that operations agains the Mahdi Army have continued throughout Iraq.

Iraqi and US forces have not stopped their operations against the
Mahdi Army in Baghdad and the South despite Sadr’s threat to conduct a
third uprising. US forces in Baghdad alone have reported 56 "criminals"
killed since Sadr issued his warning. The US military refers to the
Mahdi Army as criminals in an effort to marginalize and delegitimize
the group.

Twenty-seven Mahdi Army fighters were killed during clashes in Sadr City and Baghdad on April 20. US troops killed five Mahdi Army fighters in Sadr City and another seven fighters in New Baghdad on April 21. US soldiers killed another fifteen Mahdi Army fighters inside Sadr City on April 22.

South of Baghdad in the city of Karbala, Iraqi police detained seven members of the Mahdi Army on April 2

So is the Mahdi Army finished? Depends on what Iran wants. When
the Mahdi Army serves their purposes, as it does in Baghdad, they
receive all the rockets they need and lob them into the Green Zone with
impunity. But in Basra, Moqtada al-Sadr was increasingly fighting with Iran for political control as the British pulled out.

His Mahdi Army was contesting for political power with the Badr
Organization, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Iran. So Iran cut al-Sadr up by cooperating with the US and the British
in attacking his "outlaws". Iran
is not about to concede Iraq’s largest oil reserves and only route to
the sea to a group of Iraqi Shia over whom it had only financial, not
ideological control.

The same Iranian ambassador who had lauded al-Malaki for prosecuting
outlaws in Basra condemns the US for attacking Mahdi forces in Baghdad. Once again, Iran is winning the war in Iraq.

This is the arcane world of
Shia politics, where some houses appear to have doors and windows and others do not. I do not claim to understand it — and neither do American politicians.