Marty Manley on economics, politics, technology, and culture

Elections

The Choice

The New Yorker is a national treasure (and not only because of David Remnick, the magazine’s prolific and talented editor — profiled here). The magazine’s writing is justly legendary: nobody publishes consistently better English prose. The Economist and The Wall Street Journal challenge The New Yorker for clear exposition of complex ideas, but for commentary [...]

September Surprise

Two weeks is a very long time in politics. To get a read on political outcomes, prediction markets are a much better tool than opinion polls. Prediction markets enable people to bet real money on specific races by buying futures contracts that trade real-time. Intrade is one of the most active, thus "liquid", of these [...]

ImPalin' the Ticket

We knew she was a high risk pick that would prove either inspired or delusional. And we knew that the learning curve for a small state governor would be treacherous. After only three interviews, the Dan Quayle comparisons have started. Now Politico notices that the Palin-induced smile on Republican faces is rapidly becoming a cringe. [...]

Democrats — the new Republicans?

Berkeley’s always informative economist Brad DeLong has posted some astonishing graphs comparing the economic performance of Democratic vs. Republican administrations. Remember when Republicans were the party of fiscally responsible business? It is now clear why Wall Street donations have tilted so heavily Democratic over the past few election cycles: people who care about economic performance [...]

“How would a Machinist say that?” Talking points for Obama on the financial crisis.

During the early 1980s an odd combination of economic recession, bad career planning, and good fortune pulled me out of my job making turbine blades at Westinghouse and landed me in the position of directing education programs for about 200,000 west coast members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. I trained union [...]

Buffett's Warning. Obama's Opportunity.

Last March, legendary investor Warren Buffett warned investors that a ‘time bomb’ was ticking in US financial markets in the form of the exploding market in financial derivatives, which he memorably termed "financial weapons of mass destruction" (thanks to the JSD reader who  recalled this memo to me). By November, Buffett was actively advising Barack [...]

Obama: Fifty Focused Days

There are two ways to become President of the United States in the modern era. One is to be a Republican. Any state will do, but California or Texas seem to work well. Since the great re-alignment election of 1968, all three landslides (1972, 1980, and 1984) were won by Republicans from California. It is [...]

Ignore the Moose — Follow the Money.

If you want to understand Sarah Palin, start not with Alaska’s politics, but with its economy. Alaska is fundamentally different from the other 49 states. Having returned from a visit just as Palin became famous, I’ll comment less on Alaskan moose (big, slow), mountains (big, steep), or mosquitoes (big, scary) than on the three paradoxes [...]

The Real McCain

As noted in the previous post, there are at least two faces of John McCain.  McCain 1.0 is to the left of many Democrats and much closer to Barack Obama than most people realize. Almost every Republican official has denounced McCain 1.0 during the past two decades. John Kerry seriously considered asking McCain 1.0 to [...]

Sarah Palin: Politically Smart Pick

It is one of those decisions that could still blow up, of course. Maybe she can’t spell potato or sort out which is Iran and which is Iraq. But I would not bet on it. John McCain’s surprise pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate was not an impulse decision. It was a big [...]

The Denver Symphony Orchestra

After an epic, bruising, historic primary battle, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was  never going to be simple. "Conventional" wisdom held, rightly I think, that Obama came to Denver with serious political problems. He leaves town with all of them vastly improved, even if none are fully resolved. First, Obama arrived with a Clinton problem [...]

Live! From New York …… It's Hillary Clinton!!!

Barry and Bryant on Basketball

A terrific profile on the role of basketball in "Barry" Obama’s past. Some fine archival footage, a relaxed candidate who loves the game and knows his limits, and a wonderful discussion with Craig Patterson, Michele Obama’s brother and a former star at Princeton who just left Brown to head hoops at Oregon State.

Is Obama Clinton's Moonwalking Bear?

Future historians will debate how in the world an experienced politician like Hillary Clinton failed to see Barack Obama until it was too late. Perhaps Americans are too close to the situation to realize just how surprising Obama has been to Clinton. Germany illustrated the dynamic at a recent parade: The British however, came closer [...]

A Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy

Time for a pop quiz. See if you can accurately match the attack on Barack Obama with the right wing Republican attacker. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge: Barack Hussein Obama is a secret Muslim (which a Gallup poll this week revealed is the belief of 10% of American voters) Barack Obama spent most of the 1970s [...]

Is Brilliant Good Enough?

Yesterday in Philadelphia, Barack Obama gave a brilliant speech that will be studied as a landmark whether or not he becomes president. The speech was a gem — a thoughtful, respectful, and honest treatment of America’s least tractable issue (and a topic that cannot be articulated honestly in most countries). His talk on race and [...]

Claiming that Hillary has Executive Branch experience is like saying Yoko Ono was a Beatle.

Obama’s problem, as David Brooks points out here, is that his campaign is predicated on his ability to inspire a grass-roots movement with a new kind of leadership.    Obama has built his entire campaign on this theory. He’s run against negativity and cheap-shot campaigning. He’s claimed that there’s an “awakening” in this country — [...]

Tipping Point Ahead

This primary election is tipping. Astonishingly, the House of Clinton is reeling and the Democratic primary is almost, but not quite, Obama’s to lose. (Take that prognostication along with my assertion last September that the race was "Hillary’s to lose"). To recap for those who are not yet motion sick: Barack Obama, the brother from [...]

It's Hope and Change — not the Economy, Stupid.

Polls tell us that the economy has replaced Iraq as the largest concern of American voters by a 39 percent to 19 percent margin, according to one recent poll. That voters vote their pocketbooks is not surprising. James Carville became an instant celebrity when he put up a sign in the Clinton War Room that [...]

It's Super Tuesday in California…Disaster Looms.

On election day, it’s not just Obama girl — all the hot Berkeley Deans dig Obama! Where will it all end? Answer: in the Party Credentials Committee at the Convention. A bit of math tells you that even a record turnout of voters will not be enough to name the Democratic candidate. Neither is the [...]