Marty Manley on economics, politics, technology, and culture

Obama

Obamanos

Intrade’s state by state political map looks like this. Click on a state to see the current trading price for a futures contract betting on either McCain or Obama in that state. Allowing for uncleared trades, the price reflects the odds of success for each candidate. Geeks should play with the black buttons before reading [...]

The Choice

The New Yorker is a national treasure (and not only because of David Remnick, the magazine’s prolific and talented editor — profiled here). The magazine’s writing is justly legendary: nobody publishes consistently better English prose. The Economist and The Wall Street Journal challenge The New Yorker for clear exposition of complex ideas, but for commentary [...]

September Surprise

Two weeks is a very long time in politics. To get a read on political outcomes, prediction markets are a much better tool than opinion polls. Prediction markets enable people to bet real money on specific races by buying futures contracts that trade real-time. Intrade is one of the most active, thus "liquid", of these [...]

“How would a Machinist say that?” Talking points for Obama on the financial crisis.

During the early 1980s an odd combination of economic recession, bad career planning, and good fortune pulled me out of my job making turbine blades at Westinghouse and landed me in the position of directing education programs for about 200,000 west coast members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. I trained union [...]

Buffett's Warning. Obama's Opportunity.

Last March, legendary investor Warren Buffett warned investors that a ‘time bomb’ was ticking in US financial markets in the form of the exploding market in financial derivatives, which he memorably termed "financial weapons of mass destruction" (thanks to the JSD reader who  recalled this memo to me). By November, Buffett was actively advising Barack [...]

Obama: Fifty Focused Days

There are two ways to become President of the United States in the modern era. One is to be a Republican. Any state will do, but California or Texas seem to work well. Since the great re-alignment election of 1968, all three landslides (1972, 1980, and 1984) were won by Republicans from California. It is [...]

The Denver Symphony Orchestra

After an epic, bruising, historic primary battle, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was  never going to be simple. "Conventional" wisdom held, rightly I think, that Obama came to Denver with serious political problems. He leaves town with all of them vastly improved, even if none are fully resolved. First, Obama arrived with a Clinton problem [...]

Barry and Bryant on Basketball

A terrific profile on the role of basketball in "Barry" Obama’s past. Some fine archival footage, a relaxed candidate who loves the game and knows his limits, and a wonderful discussion with Craig Patterson, Michele Obama’s brother and a former star at Princeton who just left Brown to head hoops at Oregon State.

Is Obama Clinton's Moonwalking Bear?

Future historians will debate how in the world an experienced politician like Hillary Clinton failed to see Barack Obama until it was too late. Perhaps Americans are too close to the situation to realize just how surprising Obama has been to Clinton. Germany illustrated the dynamic at a recent parade: The British however, came closer [...]

Is Brilliant Good Enough?

Yesterday in Philadelphia, Barack Obama gave a brilliant speech that will be studied as a landmark whether or not he becomes president. The speech was a gem — a thoughtful, respectful, and honest treatment of America’s least tractable issue (and a topic that cannot be articulated honestly in most countries). His talk on race and [...]

Tipping Point Ahead

This primary election is tipping. Astonishingly, the House of Clinton is reeling and the Democratic primary is almost, but not quite, Obama’s to lose. (Take that prognostication along with my assertion last September that the race was "Hillary’s to lose"). To recap for those who are not yet motion sick: Barack Obama, the brother from [...]

It's Hope and Change — not the Economy, Stupid.

Polls tell us that the economy has replaced Iraq as the largest concern of American voters by a 39 percent to 19 percent margin, according to one recent poll. That voters vote their pocketbooks is not surprising. James Carville became an instant celebrity when he put up a sign in the Clinton War Room that [...]

It's Super Tuesday in California…Disaster Looms.

On election day, it’s not just Obama girl — all the hot Berkeley Deans dig Obama! Where will it all end? Answer: in the Party Credentials Committee at the Convention. A bit of math tells you that even a record turnout of voters will not be enough to name the Democratic candidate. Neither is the [...]

Obama's Secret Weapon

Every Democratic primary that Barack Obama has entered has seen between double and triple the normal turnout – and 60% of the new voters have voted for Obama. Many of these voters are young, many are college students and many are, face it — smokin’ hot. Mainstream media has been trying to figure out exactly [...]

The Shrinking of a Former President

Bill Clinton is a slimeball. Like Bob Reich, I say this with more sadness than anger. He has been race-baiting Obama – continually reframing the election to be about race. Witness his unprompted comparison of Obama’s victory in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson’s. Clinton is good at reframing debates while appearing not to. It’s easy [...]

The Future of the House of Clinton

The Clintons simply didn’t believe it was possible, so they ignored the threat until it was very late. Worse, when finally they saw it, they had few options. They were beaten in Iowa not by a policy difference that they could defend — Clinton and Obama don’t disagree on anything. They were not being badly [...]

Revolution in Iowa

Click here for a narrated photo album of the trip. ————————————————————————————— Where but America can a politician with no obvious advantages apart from being well-organized, energetic, thoughtful, and eloquent go from unknown to political powerhouse in a few short years? A race with more than a dozen candidates is now focused on Barack Obama and [...]

The 2008 Iowa Caucuses

Click here for a narrated photo album of the trip. ————————————————————————————— At Thanksgiving over turkey I realized that the 2008 Iowa caucuses were going to be such an incredible political showdown that I had to go out and see it for myself. Both parties are hosting their most open Presidential primaries in memory — no [...]

Obama: Break Away from Hillary on Immigration

To me, the biggest surprise of the 2008 election is that the most wide open election in three generations is not that wide open.  The electorate is leaning heavily to early favorites Giuliani and Clinton, the two most centrist candidates. A Democratic Hawk vs. a Republican social liberal? My kind of election. The biggest disappointment [...]

Obama: We Hoped That You Were Ready

Today’s New York Times headlines say it all: "Obama Promises a Forceful Stand Against Clinton" followed by a series of facts. First, Obama planted the story — or as the Times put it, the front page story happened because of "an interview on Friday that was initiated by his campaign to signal the change of [...]