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My Two Worst Technology Predictions
In the spirit of the New Year, it is time to take stock, confront shortcomings, and resolve to improve. I’ll get 2011 off to a clean start byI confessing to two whopping errors. There were plenty of small things that did not work out as I said they would, but two of my predictions were [...]
Wave Goodbye to Traditional Telcos
A third wave is about to hit the telecommunications industry. It is very unlikely to damage the industry, but it will force some of its biggest players to once again become dull and regulated. Consumers will celebrate because telcos that provide only dumb pipes are not a problem, they are a solution. The first wave to [...]
In Praise of Dumb Pipes
“Net neutrality” is a confusing term that describes an important debate over the rights of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) like cable, mobile, satellite, and telephone companies. At its simplest, the issue is will we force ISPs to be “dumb pipes” by law or can they “add value”? To a first approximation, the right answer turns [...]
The Kindle: Dead, Deadly, and Dominant
Just before the launch of the iPad, I ventured the safe prediction that Amazon’s ebook reader, the Kindle, was kindling. It was doomed to be crushed by Apple’s reactionary, if magical, iPad. As hardware, the Kindle is history, but as software it is brilliant, with enduring advantages over Apple’s iBook. During the last four months, Amazon has [...]
Visa, Mastercard, or iPhone?
Google and Apple will soon compete with Visa and Mastercard to process your payments in stores, restaurants, and online. Both companies will be pulled into payment processing because both have built two valuable networks: one of developers who build apps, the other of consumers who buy them. But the developer network has diminishing returns, whereas [...]
WhyPad?
Apple’s iPad has been subject to two prevailing narratives: one sycophantic (“a magical and revolutionary device”), the other scornful (“an overgrown iPod Touch”). Here is a fast first reaction that reconciles the two and argues that for many if not most people, a tablet is in your future. 1. Well, it is revolutionary. And as close [...]
Holy Cow Batman! Facebook just stole our Internet!
TechCrunch just reported that Facebook has taken control of the Internet. Huh? What is the fuss about? Well, Facebook announced today a plan to reshape the Internet as profoundly as Apple is reshaping mobile computing. They today published a social software platform called the Open Graph. Founder Mark Zuckerberg called it “the most transformative thing we’ve ever done for the web”. [...]
The Empire Strikes Back: iPhone 4.0
In one year Apple and Google have gone from allies to antagonists to epic combatants. The contest is really just beginning — and it is shaping up as a replay of the battle fought 30 years ago between Apple and Microsoft. At today's release of iPhone OS 4.0, Steve Jobs took a swipe at Amazon, Adobe, [...]
Buzz This
OK, I finally understand Google Buzz. Wave, not so much, but this explanation of Buzz is pretty succinct, if NSFW.
The Death of the Desktop?
Google today revealed details of its operating system: Chrome OS. There is a reason that they named their operating system after their browser: their operating system IS a browser. Your computer boots in seconds and up comes a browser. Take more than a cursory look at Chrome OS and you realize that Google is offering [...]
The Apple Squeeze
Have your noticed that Apple is getting squeezed? Consider these recent developments: 1. With Windows 7, Microsoft has substantially closed the performance gap with the Mac OS, thus quietly removing the major reason to switch to a Mac. Both professional reviews and personal experience confirm that with Windows 7, Microsoft got it right. In a [...]
US Newspapers in a Free Fall
Today the Audit Bureau of Circulations released weekday circulation numbers for the top 25 daily newspapers in the U.S. The graph below shows changes in circulation during the past six months. These numbers are not simply awful — they represent the total collapse of the newspaper business. Only the Wall St. Journal added any subscribers [...]
A Brilliant Flashback
Saturday night I took a trip back to the 1970s and found two groups of people. One remains unchanged — seemingly frozen in time. Another group has taken what they learned in the seventies and used it to change the world. The occasion was a benefit concert for the Seva Foundation at Oakland’s beautiful Paramount [...]
Can't Google and Apple Sync Without Microsoft?
Few companies hate Microsoft as much as Apple and Google do. With Google CEO Eric Schmidt on the Apple board, you would figure that the two companies would consistently team up against Microsoft. Sometimes they do, but for over a year, Google and Apple have reinforced Microsoft’s dominance over corporate email services, needlessly helping Microsoft [...]
Will Google Free the Phone?
Google is about to become your phone company. Indeed, if current technology pans out, Google won’t charge you much if anything for your phone, which may serve nicely as your computer and your TV. As of tonight Google stock trades at $700/share making it the fifth most valuable company in the United States. Google is [...]
Google Devours Planet. General Motors Fails to Notice.
The press has been aflutter about Toyota overtaking GM as the world’s largest car company. Hardly a shock — especially in California, where Toyota crushed GM years ago. Toyota doesn’t just outsell GM in California, it outproduces it as well. The two companies jointly own New United Motors in Fremont — now part of Silicon [...]
Your Power is Turning Our Darkness to Dawn
Uncle Sam took up the challenge in the year of thirty three For the farmer and the factory and all of you and me He said, "Roll along Columbia", you can roll down to the sea But river, while you’re rambling, you can do some work for me. Now from Washington and Oregon you can [...]
